Crude imports from OPEC Member Countries dropped by 6% in December from one month earlier, mainly due to less imported volumes from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
OPEC Sees Rival Oil Production Declining as MarketsThis surplus stems from increasing non-OPEC supply, along with contango in major benchmarks, encouraging refineries to build more crude inventories.In addition, the second budget of the government that came to power in May 2014 contains dozens of proposals that should boost economic growth and make it easier to do business in India.Futures prices declined further amid a deteriorating economic outlook and stronger US dollar.The decline in monthly product exports was registered for all products, with the exception of naphtha and kerosene.OPEC reported in its January Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that OECD commercial stocks fell to 2.993 billion barrels, around 271 million barrels above.
The MOMR may contain references to material(s) from third parties whose copyright must be acknowledged by obtaining necessary authorization from the copyright owner(s).GDP growth in 4Q14 stood at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (saar) of only 2.2%, after reaching 4.6% q-o-q in the 2Q14 and 5% q-o-q in 3Q.Exports of basic steel and aluminium products grew at even faster rates.Prices across non-food articles continued to slide for the fourth straight month, driven by a sharp decline in fuel and power prices.IEA releases December Oil Market Report. The market was gloomy in 2016, but OPEC cuts provide some hope in the coming year.In the above-mentioned case, the government of India has changed the base year for estimating GDP from 2004-2005 to 2011-2012.This is due to strong production in 4Q14, particularly from the Gumusut-Kakap floating production platform offshore Malaysia.Gross fixed capital formation decreased by 4.7% and private consumption fell by 1.4%.On the other hand, tanker owners tried to cap the drop in freight rates by rejecting low offers.
Though the resulting data should now be more comprehensive than previously, and the methodology closer to that used by other countries, the changes have led to a surprising increase in estimated GDP growth rates for recent quarters.Consumer confidence rose to a new record high of 103.8 in January and receded only slightly in February to 96.4, the latest available number, based on the index provided by the Conference Board.
Activity in the clean tanker market was affected by the holiday season, as was the case with the dirty tanker market.OPEC: Monthly Oil Market Report The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market.The tight gasoil market opened arbitrage from Europe to the USEC.Rising inflation has certainly depressed real income and should be considered an important factor that has so far dragged down any possible domestic improvements.Feb 10 Aug 10 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb 14 Aug 14 Feb 15.Another shale project involves the Palyanovsky reserves in the Krasnoleninsky field, also in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Region.The value of imports in January declined by more than 20% due to weak commodity prices.
Distillate stocks fell by 11.5 mb in February to stand at 123.0 mb, which is 10.1 mb or 8.9% higher than the same period a year ago yet 13.6 mb or 9.9% below the five-year average.Currency markets continue to experience volatility, influenced mainly by the monetary decisions of various central banks, but also impacted by some real economic and political developments.
The services sector PMI declined slightly to move to 56.7 in February from 57.3 in January, still a very high level.A higher level of distillate output was offset by lower imports from the Black Sea due to storms, as well as cold weather in the northeastern US.The budget proposal raised the revenue share of the states in union taxes to 42%, a jump from the earlier recommended level of 32%.Strong growth was seen in OECD Americas and Latin America, as well as the former Soviet Union (FSU), Africa, China and the Asia Pacific region, while other regions showed declines.Given the latest signs of a weakening economy, the 2015 growth forecast has been revised down to 0.9%, compared to 1.2% in the previous month.Nevertheless, the level of growth was somewhat disappointing as it was expected to be higher.Writing in its monthly oil market report, Opec said 2016 output outside the group would now only contract by.Gross fixed capital formation declined 8.5% in the same period, signalling the third consecutive quarter of deceleration in investment.Taking these challenges into account, the 2015 GDP growth forecast remains at 3.4%, after 2014 growth of 3.3%. The OECD growth forecast for both 2014 and 2015 remains unchanged at 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively.
The government set the 2015 fiscal deficit target at 1.62 trillion yuan (2.3% of GDP), up from 1.35 trillion yuan (2.1%) in 2014, but lower than the forecast of a 2.9% of GDP deficit.According to the revised figures, the economy grew 6.5% in the second quarter (5.7% under the previous methodology) and 8.2% in the September quarter (5.3% as initially reported).In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates weakened on all reported routes in February.Soy complex prices dropped with soybeans, soybean oil and soy meal declining by 4.0%, 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively, on record crops in the US and South America.But the revised figures show real fixed investment contracting only in 2013 and then improving marginally in 2014.The total open interest volume (OIV) in major US commodity markets increased to 8.7 million contracts in February, with the OIV increasing by 6.8% for crude oil, 5.2% for agriculture, 3.2% for copper and 1.3% for natural gas.
The Egyptian pound lost 4.8% m-o-m of its value against the US dollar last month, the sharpest depreciation since January 2013.Inflation continued its upwards trend for the seventh consecutive month in February, increasing to 16.7% y-o-y, up from 15% a month earlier.An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly. Non-OPEC supply expectations indicate changes in market.US commercial crude stocks reached another record high in January to stand at 444.4 mb, which is 71 mb or 19% above the same time last year and 84.9 mb or 23.6% above the latest five-year average.All products registered drops of different magnitudes, with the exception of jet fuel, which was slightly positive.Agricultural prices declined, due to a drop in food and beverage prices, while the cost of raw materials increased.
ICE Brent daily traded volume rose slightly by 17,966 contracts to 852,310 lots.Both Saudi Arabia and Mexico exported less crude to the US in February than one month earlier.
Similar to the trend in 2014, residual fuel oil registered declines, falling by more than 15%, mainly as a result of substitution with natural gas.The Singapore naphtha crack continued its recovery trend on the back of stronger buying interest from the petrochemical sector, mainly from Japan and South Korea, amid a tightening market due to lower inflows to the region.
India reported lower refinery throughput and utilization in January.This also opened export opportunities from Europe to Latin America, mainly Mexico and Brazil.This remains the most important driving force for US economic growth.In the category of non-energy commodities, both agriculture and metals were down during the month.Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A rose by 2.2% on higher output combined with lower domestic sales.All main product categories witnessed increases, which were, however, more than offset by declining demand for LPG.Saudi Arabia came in as second- largest supplier, holding a share of 11% of total US crude imports, while Mexico was third-largest supplier with a share of 10%.Similarly, rates reported for tankers trading on the West Africa-to-East route declined by 13% to average WS58 points, while freight rates registered for tankers trading on the Middle East-to- West route saw smaller drops, declining by 8% to average WS36 points.Industry and construction was the fastest growing sector by 7.1% y-o-y in the same period.